RESUMO
INTRODUCTION: There are limited published data regarding the recent incidence trends of cancer in Iraqi Kurdistan. METHODS: The present study assessed the epidemiological estimates of cancer incidence, as well providing a projection of future cancer trends in the upcoming decade by analysing the population-based cancer registry between 2013 and 2019, in both the Erbil and Duhok governorates. A retrospective analysis was performed on data retrieved from the Medical Statistics Department at the Ministry of Health, Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). RESULTS: The total number of female cancer patients was higher in both governorates, and the total incidence of patients with cancer increased by over 2x between 2013 and 2019 in Erbil and Duhok, from 73 to 174 patients/100,000 individuals for women, and 36 to 85 patients/100,000 individuals for men. Analysis indicated that the percentage of patients with cancer is projected to increase by >2x in the current decade, from 3,457 cases to 4,547 and 4,449 cases in the Erbil governorate; and from 1,365 to 2,633 and 2,737 cases in 2028 based on LSTM and bi-LTSM analysis in the Duhok governorate. Lung cancer (LC) and female breast cancer (BC) were the most prominent types of cancers diagnosed since 2013 in both the Erbil and Duhok governorates. CONCLUSION: The striking pattern of trends for both present and future cancer incidence rates require urgent solutions and comprehensive efforts to control risk factors that promote the increasing incidence of cancer in these two KRG governorates.
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